Leaders from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this weekend outlined a number of global economic risks, chief among them surging food prices, inflation, an uneven worldwide recovery and overheating in Asia.
While the global economy has shown signs of improvement, it remains in a "fairly fragile" state, said IMFC Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam at a press briefing on Saturday.
GLOBAL FOOD INFLATION
Food prices worldwide have surged 36 percent since a year ago and disproportionately hit developing countries. The rise in prices comes even as 44 million people around the world have been thrust into poverty since June last year.
"We are one shock away from full blown crisis," said World Bank Group President Robert Zoellick at a press briefing in Washington on Saturday.
The region's poor often spend half of their income on food. Having to use more of that income on feeding their families means fewer funds are available for families to save or invest.
"If the Food Price Index rises by just another 10 percent, we estimate that another 10 million people will fall into extreme poverty when people live on less than 1 dollar 25 cents per day," he said. "And a 30 percent increase would add 34 million people to the world's poor, who number 1.2 billion."
Zoellick said the G20 can play a leading role in helping to alleviate the problem, adding that the group of nations is working closely with the World Bank.
"Multilateralism must be focused on doing real things in the short term while building towards mid and longer term actions," he said.
France has made food a top priority for its presidency of the G20, he said, adding that the World Bank is working closely with the G20.
"I believe we can take a number of important steps that will help in two key areas: food price volatility and food security," he said.
The World Bank is also working on a new code of conduct for countries with regards to export bans, he said, adding that having better information on food stock quality and quantity would be beneficial.
The organization also supports the "pre-positioning of small, humanitarian food stocks, in places like the Horn of Africa, operated by the World Food Program," he said.
The World Bank aims to help countries better manage agricultural risks and with quick support for people most vulnerable to health risks due to food shortages by "effective, targeted nutrition safety nets, rather than through mistaken price controls or broad-based wage increases," he said.
The World Bank is also investing 7 billion US dollars a year in improving agricultural production, from seeds to irrigation to storage, he said.
"I think these goals are achievable in the coming months," he said.
MILLIONS STAND ON EDGE OF POVERTY IN EMERGING EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
The cost of food and energy could push more than 5 million people in Eastern Europe and Central Asia into poverty, the World Bank said.
"The poorest people in the region will suffer the most from the high food and energy price inflation, which reduces their purchasing power," said Yvonne Tsikata, director for poverty reduction and economic management of the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia region.
A mixed bag of factors has contributed to the price spike: temporary factors such as poor weather; permanent ones such as a changing diet in developing countries - people in emerging economies are eating more meat - that drive up commodity prices; and bio fuel policies that divert food crops.
The news comes amid a nascent recovery from the global economic downturn and at a time when many countries in the region continue to grapple with lower wages and higher unemployment.
Food inflation has hit the region's poorer countries hard - the Kyrgyz Republic has seen prices jump by 27 percent and Georgia has seen a price hike of 23 percent, according to World Bank statistics.
If no measures are taken and unemployment continues at current rates, the Kyrgyz Republic could see an 11 percent rise in poverty levels; Armenia and Georgia could see a 9 percent increase; Tajikistan could experience an 8 percent poverty hike; and Moldova's poverty rate could jump 5 percent, according to the World Bank.
The World Bank recommended expanding social safety nets to keep people from sliding into poverty.
"In order to help cushion the impact of higher prices, governments in the region need to ensure that programs targeted to the poor get more funding as necessary, from government budgets," Tsikata said. "More funding will allow governments to increase the number of people covered in their programs and to better offset their losses."
Some countries have enacted trade restrictions on exports, but the World Bank warned against the implementation of such policies, arguing that they could hinder long term adjustment in markets and could worsen price volatility.
Despite rising food prices, growth is returning to Eastern Europe and Central Asia after the region underwent a period of uneven economic improvement, the World Bank said. Countries such as Turkmenistan and Turkey showed strong growth while a handful of countries including Latvia and Romania saw negative growth.
The World Bank on Friday said every country in the region should see positive growth this year, although growth is more tepid in Central and Southeastern Europe.
ASIA GROWING AT HEALTHY CLIP, BUT INFLATION RISKS REMAIN
Asia's economies are recovering at a "healthy" rate as exports and domestic fuel rapid growth, but the region risks overheating and inflation in goods and assets.
The region as a whole grew more than 8 percent last year and is expected to continue at a slightly lower 7 percent through 2011 and next year, said International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Director Anoop Singh at a press briefing in Washington Saturday.
More broadly, the region will see differences in the rate of growth. China will lead with more than 9 percent growth this year and next, as will India, with more than 8 percent this year and just under that number next year.
Indonesia will likely see more than 6 percent growth next year and in 2013.
Low income and Pacific Island countries are expected to see robust growth this and next year on the back of strong commodity and textile exports, higher investment in the mining sector and an optimistic outlook for tourism.
Still, risks are there, most notably in inflation. Headline inflation has gathered steam since October, the time of the last IMF and World Bank meetings, and inflationary pressures have spilled over into core inflation.
Further spikes in food and energy prices could also impact the region's growth and inflation outlook. While higher energy prices are expected to have a limited impact, Asian economies could suffer if they resulted in a global slowdown.
Higher global commodity prices could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, and the IMF expects inflation in many Asian economies to peak in 2011 before leveling off somewhat next year.
The IMF is recommending that countries tighten macroeconomic policy, which Singh called more "pressing," than six months ago, at the time of the last IMF meeting, especially in economies experiencing inflationary pressures.
An important priority for many Asian economies remains to strengthen the platform for sustained strong growth over the medium term. The persistence of global imbalances suggests that many of the distortions that characterized the pre-crisis period remain unchanged, such as undervalued exchange rates in key emerging economies and insufficient domestic saving in advanced economies, Singh said.
Unless these distortions are changed, they could threaten the sustainability of global growth prospects, Singh said.
AN UNEVEN RECOVERY
Overall, the worldwide recovery has been lopsided, with emerging markets surging ahead while advanced economies remain sluggish, a phenomenon recognized at the previous IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.
While the US and other developed countries have seen some economic growth, many remain steeped in high unemployment and promise few employment prospects for a plethora of job seekers.
Source: http://www.philstar.com
While the global economy has shown signs of improvement, it remains in a "fairly fragile" state, said IMFC Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam at a press briefing on Saturday.
GLOBAL FOOD INFLATION
Food prices worldwide have surged 36 percent since a year ago and disproportionately hit developing countries. The rise in prices comes even as 44 million people around the world have been thrust into poverty since June last year.
"We are one shock away from full blown crisis," said World Bank Group President Robert Zoellick at a press briefing in Washington on Saturday.
The region's poor often spend half of their income on food. Having to use more of that income on feeding their families means fewer funds are available for families to save or invest.
"If the Food Price Index rises by just another 10 percent, we estimate that another 10 million people will fall into extreme poverty when people live on less than 1 dollar 25 cents per day," he said. "And a 30 percent increase would add 34 million people to the world's poor, who number 1.2 billion."
Zoellick said the G20 can play a leading role in helping to alleviate the problem, adding that the group of nations is working closely with the World Bank.
"Multilateralism must be focused on doing real things in the short term while building towards mid and longer term actions," he said.
France has made food a top priority for its presidency of the G20, he said, adding that the World Bank is working closely with the G20.
"I believe we can take a number of important steps that will help in two key areas: food price volatility and food security," he said.
The World Bank is also working on a new code of conduct for countries with regards to export bans, he said, adding that having better information on food stock quality and quantity would be beneficial.
The organization also supports the "pre-positioning of small, humanitarian food stocks, in places like the Horn of Africa, operated by the World Food Program," he said.
The World Bank aims to help countries better manage agricultural risks and with quick support for people most vulnerable to health risks due to food shortages by "effective, targeted nutrition safety nets, rather than through mistaken price controls or broad-based wage increases," he said.
The World Bank is also investing 7 billion US dollars a year in improving agricultural production, from seeds to irrigation to storage, he said.
"I think these goals are achievable in the coming months," he said.
MILLIONS STAND ON EDGE OF POVERTY IN EMERGING EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
The cost of food and energy could push more than 5 million people in Eastern Europe and Central Asia into poverty, the World Bank said.
"The poorest people in the region will suffer the most from the high food and energy price inflation, which reduces their purchasing power," said Yvonne Tsikata, director for poverty reduction and economic management of the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia region.
A mixed bag of factors has contributed to the price spike: temporary factors such as poor weather; permanent ones such as a changing diet in developing countries - people in emerging economies are eating more meat - that drive up commodity prices; and bio fuel policies that divert food crops.
The news comes amid a nascent recovery from the global economic downturn and at a time when many countries in the region continue to grapple with lower wages and higher unemployment.
Food inflation has hit the region's poorer countries hard - the Kyrgyz Republic has seen prices jump by 27 percent and Georgia has seen a price hike of 23 percent, according to World Bank statistics.
If no measures are taken and unemployment continues at current rates, the Kyrgyz Republic could see an 11 percent rise in poverty levels; Armenia and Georgia could see a 9 percent increase; Tajikistan could experience an 8 percent poverty hike; and Moldova's poverty rate could jump 5 percent, according to the World Bank.
The World Bank recommended expanding social safety nets to keep people from sliding into poverty.
"In order to help cushion the impact of higher prices, governments in the region need to ensure that programs targeted to the poor get more funding as necessary, from government budgets," Tsikata said. "More funding will allow governments to increase the number of people covered in their programs and to better offset their losses."
Some countries have enacted trade restrictions on exports, but the World Bank warned against the implementation of such policies, arguing that they could hinder long term adjustment in markets and could worsen price volatility.
Despite rising food prices, growth is returning to Eastern Europe and Central Asia after the region underwent a period of uneven economic improvement, the World Bank said. Countries such as Turkmenistan and Turkey showed strong growth while a handful of countries including Latvia and Romania saw negative growth.
The World Bank on Friday said every country in the region should see positive growth this year, although growth is more tepid in Central and Southeastern Europe.
ASIA GROWING AT HEALTHY CLIP, BUT INFLATION RISKS REMAIN
Asia's economies are recovering at a "healthy" rate as exports and domestic fuel rapid growth, but the region risks overheating and inflation in goods and assets.
The region as a whole grew more than 8 percent last year and is expected to continue at a slightly lower 7 percent through 2011 and next year, said International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Director Anoop Singh at a press briefing in Washington Saturday.
More broadly, the region will see differences in the rate of growth. China will lead with more than 9 percent growth this year and next, as will India, with more than 8 percent this year and just under that number next year.
Indonesia will likely see more than 6 percent growth next year and in 2013.
Low income and Pacific Island countries are expected to see robust growth this and next year on the back of strong commodity and textile exports, higher investment in the mining sector and an optimistic outlook for tourism.
Still, risks are there, most notably in inflation. Headline inflation has gathered steam since October, the time of the last IMF and World Bank meetings, and inflationary pressures have spilled over into core inflation.
Further spikes in food and energy prices could also impact the region's growth and inflation outlook. While higher energy prices are expected to have a limited impact, Asian economies could suffer if they resulted in a global slowdown.
Higher global commodity prices could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, and the IMF expects inflation in many Asian economies to peak in 2011 before leveling off somewhat next year.
The IMF is recommending that countries tighten macroeconomic policy, which Singh called more "pressing," than six months ago, at the time of the last IMF meeting, especially in economies experiencing inflationary pressures.
An important priority for many Asian economies remains to strengthen the platform for sustained strong growth over the medium term. The persistence of global imbalances suggests that many of the distortions that characterized the pre-crisis period remain unchanged, such as undervalued exchange rates in key emerging economies and insufficient domestic saving in advanced economies, Singh said.
Unless these distortions are changed, they could threaten the sustainability of global growth prospects, Singh said.
AN UNEVEN RECOVERY
Overall, the worldwide recovery has been lopsided, with emerging markets surging ahead while advanced economies remain sluggish, a phenomenon recognized at the previous IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.
While the US and other developed countries have seen some economic growth, many remain steeped in high unemployment and promise few employment prospects for a plethora of job seekers.
Source: http://www.philstar.com
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