The Maghreb is at the moment a particularly sensitive and fragile region, because of a distinctive combination of various security challenges, including “frozen” border disputes, which have in turn discouraged attempts at meaningful and effective regional integration. However, this situation is currently overshadowed and aggravated by a wave of pro-democracy protests that have hit, to various degrees, all countries of the region.
In general, there are two security threats in the region: The first is the unprecedented dynamics of the pro-democracy protests and deep processes of the regional social and political transformation. The second one is the “frozen” border disputes and territorial conflicts such as the one in the Western Sahara. Against the backdrop of recent dramatic developments across the Maghreb, it is obvious that the current status quo in this region is no longer sustainable.
Since December 2010, Tunisia has undergone the most dramatic wave of political and social unrest for several decades which has led to the ousting of the long-time President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. The „Tunisian Revolution‟ has been characterized by unprecedented pro-democracy protests and a campaign of civil resistance.
These events were precipitated by the rapidly deteriorating living conditions of the majority of the Tunisian population particularly during the global economic crisis, which brought rising unemployment, high inflation, and was further aggravated by growing public frustration at rampant corruption, the lack of freedom of speech and other political freedoms.
There has been a growing sense particularly among the educated, young people in Algeria, as well as in the other North African nations, that the rest of the world has passed them by and that it is the young Arab generation who should try to find a sustainable solution to their countries‟ economic and socio-political woes. The Tunisian Revolution inspired similar pro-democracy and civil resistance movements throughout North Africa and the Middle East with protests taking place in Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain and other regional states. In Libya, public discontent with the regime of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has boiled over into a full-scale rebellion beginning in February 2011.
Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika‟s government, worried about the growing and increasingly well organized popular movements, has somewhat hastily scrambled to stem the mounting anti-government sentiments by offering some concessions to the protesters (including ending the country‟s 19-year state-of-emergency laws).
Morocco responded to these protests by using minimum force and tried to handle the situation in a relatively peaceful manner, including offering dialogue and concessions. In fact, Morocco‟s own democratization process, as well as its social and economic reforms, was tangibly encouraged by its current ruler Muhammad VI long before the wave of current protests were triggered by the revolution in Tunisia. So far, it seems that Morocco may well withstand and positively address any potential discontent and grievances of its own people. As a matter of fact, the protests in Morocco were also met by a relatively swift conciliatory reaction from King Muhammad VI who, in his speech of 9 March 2011, promised broad constitutional reforms and greater political rights and freedoms while Moroccan authorities generally tolerate dissidence on Facebook as long as it respects the Moroccan constitution.
In short, it could be argued that Morocco is gradually moving towards a true constitutional monarchy. If we take into consideration the ongoing civil war in Libya, Algeria‟s hesitant move towards greater civil freedoms and Tunisian fragile stability, Morocco appears to be the most stable and relatively free country in the Maghreb even though it has not by any means been immune to the current wave of protests which have engulfed the whole region.
The current wave of pro-reform and pro-democracy protests will certainly deeply influence the speed, form and scale of regional integration as well as dealing with regional territorial disputes. The EU as well as the Maghreb governments should seize this opportunity and take the lead instead of being dragged along by events. Both regions – the EU and the Maghreb – are bound by many common interests. In light of the growing instability in Northern Africa, the EU should take greater interest in the Maghreb and place its relations with this region at the top of its agenda. It is also increasingly clear that the different aspects of Euro-Mediterranean relations should be thoroughly reconsidered. As a matter of fact, the EU should look forward and not hesitate to adopt a daring vision of further regional integration short of the EU‟s enlargement. The reason is clear: owing to its particular “un-integration” and relative underdevelopment, the Maghreb is perhaps the only area for substantial expansion of the sluggish c for many years to come.
The Maghreb countries constitute one region that is culturally, geographically and historically integrated. Yet, the Maghreb countries have largely failed to achieve “functional integration” particularly at the political and economic cooperation level. In fact, the failure of the Maghreb countries to boost their economic cooperation is such an enduring phenomenon that it has been given a name – the “non-Maghreb”. Thus, even though the Maghreb nations agreed in December 2010 to create the Maghreb Free Trade Area to be launched in 2011, the implementation details remain up in the air. Modelled on the European Union, the project was hampered by various political and economic obstacles long before the Tunisian “Jasmine revolution” threw the spotlight on the region. Integration attempts have fallen short of expectations and various economic models show potential numbers that are in sharp contrast to the reality of underperformance. The regional governments are far from taking a pragmatic approach towards economic integration that would attract foreign investment and initiate new opportunities in global markets. An IMF report from October 2009 posits that the lack of regional integration is undeniably a major factor exacerbating the effect of the recent economic and financial crisis and is also contributing to the general social instability in the Maghreb region. Nevertheless, the first item on the checklist is to find a solution to the political conflicts between and within the states, which are an obstacle to creating a unified Maghreb. If the countries are further fragmented and are fully absorbed in their internal problems, it could only lead to more protectionism and even the complete rejection of the Maghreb Free Trade Area project.
The closed border since 1994 between Algeria and Morocco is a long-term problem for establishing greater economic and security cooperation between the two countries and the lack of integration in the Maghreb in general. Underlying this “closed border” issue is the competition over the spheres of influence in the region as well as inconclusive efforts to resolve the question of the Western Sahara. This conflict, one of the most divisive and hotly contested issues on the geopolitical landscape of North Africa, has already been going on for over 30 years.
The main actors involved in the Western Sahara dispute, Morocco and Algeria, have engaged in protracted negotiations for more than three decades but these have, owing to their uncompromising positions, always ended in an impasse. For Morocco, holding on to the Southern Provinces relates to the fundamental principle of territorial integrity, while for Algeria, there is an attachment to the principles of autonomy and the people‟s right to self-determination, as much as the perception that it has a major geo-economical interest in the disputed territory. Finally, for the Polisario Front, it is unthinkable to abandon the fight without losing its reason to exist.
In his recent – historical and unprecedented in the Arab world – speech, Morocco's King Mohammed VI stressed the importance of the regionalization process that lead to a greater decentralization of power as well as democratization and economic benefits for all people throughout Morocco. In his speech, Mohammed VI also elaborated on the 2007 Moroccan autonomy initiative for the Western Sahara region that was earlier hailed by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon as a credible alternative to the continuing deadlock. This alternative and widely acclaimed plan has the merit to be put on the negotiating table and should be seriously discussed. Moreover, the autonomy initiative has played an important role in direct United Nations-led discussions between the interested parties resumed in 2007 generally known as the Manhasset (I, II, III and IV) negotiations.
The current status-quo situation produces immense economic, political and human costs while generally contributing to the overall lack of security in the region. In fact, this situation, with the negotiations stalemated, generates an overall atmosphere of instability with dire effects on the economic prospects for the whole Maghreb. Some other worrying tendencies have been the political decline and break-up of the Polisario Front and Western Sahara‟s proximity to Mauritania which have created an ungoverned area that has been exploited by members of this organization to generate money from arms smuggling. To make the whole picture even more complicated, it is increasingly clear that some links exist between the Sahrawis and some terrorist cells and that any break-up or disintegration of POLISARIO could well reinforce the instability.
To this end, the threat of radical Islamism in Maghreb countries constitutes another major challenge to the regional security and stability. The threat of modern transnational terrorism in the region clearly emerged in 2007 when the original local group GSPC became a member of the al-Qaeda transnational Islamist terrorist network.
This group was renamed AQIM and has begun to expand its activities from Algeria to other countries in the Sahara (Sahel) region. Possibly the most significant development was Al-Qaeda‟s first attack after 9/11 aimed at the Jewish community on the Tunisian island of Djerba. The AQIM members are involved in various illegal activities in the regional black market, including crime, kidnapping and extortion. For the Maghreb and Sahel countries, this insecurity has truly catastrophic consequences – especially in economic terms because it constitutes perhaps the main obstacle to the growth of tourism, one of the most important sources of development in this part of the world.
In the future, the European Union should seek to rebuild its approach in the Maghreb while taking into consideration the importance of empowerment and the protection of human security. Whereas traditional security approaches focus on state security (fixing mainly economic and military objectives), human security strategy brings the human condition (social inequality, development issues, human rights...) to the centre of high security concerns. One of the lessons to be drawn from the recent events in the Maghreb is the transformation of security challenges from interstate (Morocco/Algeria, Libya/Tunisia, Algeria/Tunisia...) to intrastate conflicts (Tunisia, Libya, Algeria...).
Previously, in its relationship to the Maghreb, the EU has prioritized stability, military cooperation and economic development. Therefore, European countries were taken aback and challenged to some extent, by the recent social and political movements. While Euro-Maghrebian cooperation had a positive impact on improving legislation, the education system and the economy, it did not help to bring the expected transformation in the social and political conditions of the Maghreb.
Because the security settings in the Maghreb are shifting in an unconventional way, Europe needs to rebuild its approach and strategies. The EU should take into account the complex human security concerns in the Maghreb as well as its own strengths and weaknesses.
Firstly, the EU should support the democratization process that should be dealt with as a human security issue. Such an approach should consider security building as trust building. Beyond that, the EU should benefit from its democratic credibility aiming at building regional governance in the Euro-Maghreb area. Secondly, Europe should also highlight development as a human security issue in the Maghreb, which is an approach concerned about protecting the “vital core” of human life.
Thirdly, the EU should promote, above all, the empowerment of Maghrebian societies for, in the light of the revolutionary wave in the Maghreb, it is obvious that for modern Maghrebian societies, especially among the younger generations, human dignity is a priority. It has a secular meaning and it is associated with freedom and justice. Fourthly, the EU should realize that effective conflict prevention should primarily combine traditional preventive security measures such as intelligence and foreign policy, and be involved in democratization, development and security-from-below processes.
Finally, if the current changes bring freedom to the Maghreb, Central and Eastern Europe countries would be urged to launch an “experience sharing process” with Maghrebian countries. Overall, Maghrebian economists and political scientists perceive the democratic wave of 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe as the closest event to the 2011 uprisings in the Maghreb. They see opportunities for learning from the European experience on the democratic transition level as well as measures for economic upgrading. From our standpoint, Central and Eastern Europe should grasp the opportunity of being a model for Arab revolutions to promote its position in the Maghreb.
Source: http://www.moroccoboard.com
In general, there are two security threats in the region: The first is the unprecedented dynamics of the pro-democracy protests and deep processes of the regional social and political transformation. The second one is the “frozen” border disputes and territorial conflicts such as the one in the Western Sahara. Against the backdrop of recent dramatic developments across the Maghreb, it is obvious that the current status quo in this region is no longer sustainable.
Since December 2010, Tunisia has undergone the most dramatic wave of political and social unrest for several decades which has led to the ousting of the long-time President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. The „Tunisian Revolution‟ has been characterized by unprecedented pro-democracy protests and a campaign of civil resistance.
These events were precipitated by the rapidly deteriorating living conditions of the majority of the Tunisian population particularly during the global economic crisis, which brought rising unemployment, high inflation, and was further aggravated by growing public frustration at rampant corruption, the lack of freedom of speech and other political freedoms.
There has been a growing sense particularly among the educated, young people in Algeria, as well as in the other North African nations, that the rest of the world has passed them by and that it is the young Arab generation who should try to find a sustainable solution to their countries‟ economic and socio-political woes. The Tunisian Revolution inspired similar pro-democracy and civil resistance movements throughout North Africa and the Middle East with protests taking place in Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain and other regional states. In Libya, public discontent with the regime of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has boiled over into a full-scale rebellion beginning in February 2011.
Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika‟s government, worried about the growing and increasingly well organized popular movements, has somewhat hastily scrambled to stem the mounting anti-government sentiments by offering some concessions to the protesters (including ending the country‟s 19-year state-of-emergency laws).
Morocco responded to these protests by using minimum force and tried to handle the situation in a relatively peaceful manner, including offering dialogue and concessions. In fact, Morocco‟s own democratization process, as well as its social and economic reforms, was tangibly encouraged by its current ruler Muhammad VI long before the wave of current protests were triggered by the revolution in Tunisia. So far, it seems that Morocco may well withstand and positively address any potential discontent and grievances of its own people. As a matter of fact, the protests in Morocco were also met by a relatively swift conciliatory reaction from King Muhammad VI who, in his speech of 9 March 2011, promised broad constitutional reforms and greater political rights and freedoms while Moroccan authorities generally tolerate dissidence on Facebook as long as it respects the Moroccan constitution.
In short, it could be argued that Morocco is gradually moving towards a true constitutional monarchy. If we take into consideration the ongoing civil war in Libya, Algeria‟s hesitant move towards greater civil freedoms and Tunisian fragile stability, Morocco appears to be the most stable and relatively free country in the Maghreb even though it has not by any means been immune to the current wave of protests which have engulfed the whole region.
The current wave of pro-reform and pro-democracy protests will certainly deeply influence the speed, form and scale of regional integration as well as dealing with regional territorial disputes. The EU as well as the Maghreb governments should seize this opportunity and take the lead instead of being dragged along by events. Both regions – the EU and the Maghreb – are bound by many common interests. In light of the growing instability in Northern Africa, the EU should take greater interest in the Maghreb and place its relations with this region at the top of its agenda. It is also increasingly clear that the different aspects of Euro-Mediterranean relations should be thoroughly reconsidered. As a matter of fact, the EU should look forward and not hesitate to adopt a daring vision of further regional integration short of the EU‟s enlargement. The reason is clear: owing to its particular “un-integration” and relative underdevelopment, the Maghreb is perhaps the only area for substantial expansion of the sluggish c for many years to come.
The Maghreb countries constitute one region that is culturally, geographically and historically integrated. Yet, the Maghreb countries have largely failed to achieve “functional integration” particularly at the political and economic cooperation level. In fact, the failure of the Maghreb countries to boost their economic cooperation is such an enduring phenomenon that it has been given a name – the “non-Maghreb”. Thus, even though the Maghreb nations agreed in December 2010 to create the Maghreb Free Trade Area to be launched in 2011, the implementation details remain up in the air. Modelled on the European Union, the project was hampered by various political and economic obstacles long before the Tunisian “Jasmine revolution” threw the spotlight on the region. Integration attempts have fallen short of expectations and various economic models show potential numbers that are in sharp contrast to the reality of underperformance. The regional governments are far from taking a pragmatic approach towards economic integration that would attract foreign investment and initiate new opportunities in global markets. An IMF report from October 2009 posits that the lack of regional integration is undeniably a major factor exacerbating the effect of the recent economic and financial crisis and is also contributing to the general social instability in the Maghreb region. Nevertheless, the first item on the checklist is to find a solution to the political conflicts between and within the states, which are an obstacle to creating a unified Maghreb. If the countries are further fragmented and are fully absorbed in their internal problems, it could only lead to more protectionism and even the complete rejection of the Maghreb Free Trade Area project.
The closed border since 1994 between Algeria and Morocco is a long-term problem for establishing greater economic and security cooperation between the two countries and the lack of integration in the Maghreb in general. Underlying this “closed border” issue is the competition over the spheres of influence in the region as well as inconclusive efforts to resolve the question of the Western Sahara. This conflict, one of the most divisive and hotly contested issues on the geopolitical landscape of North Africa, has already been going on for over 30 years.
The main actors involved in the Western Sahara dispute, Morocco and Algeria, have engaged in protracted negotiations for more than three decades but these have, owing to their uncompromising positions, always ended in an impasse. For Morocco, holding on to the Southern Provinces relates to the fundamental principle of territorial integrity, while for Algeria, there is an attachment to the principles of autonomy and the people‟s right to self-determination, as much as the perception that it has a major geo-economical interest in the disputed territory. Finally, for the Polisario Front, it is unthinkable to abandon the fight without losing its reason to exist.
In his recent – historical and unprecedented in the Arab world – speech, Morocco's King Mohammed VI stressed the importance of the regionalization process that lead to a greater decentralization of power as well as democratization and economic benefits for all people throughout Morocco. In his speech, Mohammed VI also elaborated on the 2007 Moroccan autonomy initiative for the Western Sahara region that was earlier hailed by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon as a credible alternative to the continuing deadlock. This alternative and widely acclaimed plan has the merit to be put on the negotiating table and should be seriously discussed. Moreover, the autonomy initiative has played an important role in direct United Nations-led discussions between the interested parties resumed in 2007 generally known as the Manhasset (I, II, III and IV) negotiations.
The current status-quo situation produces immense economic, political and human costs while generally contributing to the overall lack of security in the region. In fact, this situation, with the negotiations stalemated, generates an overall atmosphere of instability with dire effects on the economic prospects for the whole Maghreb. Some other worrying tendencies have been the political decline and break-up of the Polisario Front and Western Sahara‟s proximity to Mauritania which have created an ungoverned area that has been exploited by members of this organization to generate money from arms smuggling. To make the whole picture even more complicated, it is increasingly clear that some links exist between the Sahrawis and some terrorist cells and that any break-up or disintegration of POLISARIO could well reinforce the instability.
To this end, the threat of radical Islamism in Maghreb countries constitutes another major challenge to the regional security and stability. The threat of modern transnational terrorism in the region clearly emerged in 2007 when the original local group GSPC became a member of the al-Qaeda transnational Islamist terrorist network.
This group was renamed AQIM and has begun to expand its activities from Algeria to other countries in the Sahara (Sahel) region. Possibly the most significant development was Al-Qaeda‟s first attack after 9/11 aimed at the Jewish community on the Tunisian island of Djerba. The AQIM members are involved in various illegal activities in the regional black market, including crime, kidnapping and extortion. For the Maghreb and Sahel countries, this insecurity has truly catastrophic consequences – especially in economic terms because it constitutes perhaps the main obstacle to the growth of tourism, one of the most important sources of development in this part of the world.
In the future, the European Union should seek to rebuild its approach in the Maghreb while taking into consideration the importance of empowerment and the protection of human security. Whereas traditional security approaches focus on state security (fixing mainly economic and military objectives), human security strategy brings the human condition (social inequality, development issues, human rights...) to the centre of high security concerns. One of the lessons to be drawn from the recent events in the Maghreb is the transformation of security challenges from interstate (Morocco/Algeria, Libya/Tunisia, Algeria/Tunisia...) to intrastate conflicts (Tunisia, Libya, Algeria...).
Previously, in its relationship to the Maghreb, the EU has prioritized stability, military cooperation and economic development. Therefore, European countries were taken aback and challenged to some extent, by the recent social and political movements. While Euro-Maghrebian cooperation had a positive impact on improving legislation, the education system and the economy, it did not help to bring the expected transformation in the social and political conditions of the Maghreb.
Because the security settings in the Maghreb are shifting in an unconventional way, Europe needs to rebuild its approach and strategies. The EU should take into account the complex human security concerns in the Maghreb as well as its own strengths and weaknesses.
Firstly, the EU should support the democratization process that should be dealt with as a human security issue. Such an approach should consider security building as trust building. Beyond that, the EU should benefit from its democratic credibility aiming at building regional governance in the Euro-Maghreb area. Secondly, Europe should also highlight development as a human security issue in the Maghreb, which is an approach concerned about protecting the “vital core” of human life.
Thirdly, the EU should promote, above all, the empowerment of Maghrebian societies for, in the light of the revolutionary wave in the Maghreb, it is obvious that for modern Maghrebian societies, especially among the younger generations, human dignity is a priority. It has a secular meaning and it is associated with freedom and justice. Fourthly, the EU should realize that effective conflict prevention should primarily combine traditional preventive security measures such as intelligence and foreign policy, and be involved in democratization, development and security-from-below processes.
Finally, if the current changes bring freedom to the Maghreb, Central and Eastern Europe countries would be urged to launch an “experience sharing process” with Maghrebian countries. Overall, Maghrebian economists and political scientists perceive the democratic wave of 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe as the closest event to the 2011 uprisings in the Maghreb. They see opportunities for learning from the European experience on the democratic transition level as well as measures for economic upgrading. From our standpoint, Central and Eastern Europe should grasp the opportunity of being a model for Arab revolutions to promote its position in the Maghreb.
Source: http://www.moroccoboard.com
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