Saturday, October 18, 2014

Modi Taps Critic of His Budget as Top India Economy Aide

The Indian government named former International Monetary Fund official Arvind Subramanian as its new chief economic adviser, a position left vacant for a year after Raghuram Rajan was appointed central bank governor.

Subramanian was a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, where he criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first budget for its “implausible” revenue projections.

He has also been critical of India’s method of blocking a World Trade Organization pact and has said that Modi as chief minister of Gujarat was a “mediocre performer” when it came to tax collections.

Modi’s government is banking on boosting tax earnings to narrow the budget deficit to a seven-year low. Easing inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy and sliding global commodity prices give Modi an opportunity to take tough steps to improve public finances and trigger sustainable growth.

“His appointment adds weight and will bring dynamism and leadership,” Shubhada Rao, an economist at Yes Bank Ltd. in Mumbai, said of Subramanian.

“Now is the serious phase of action.” Subramanian has written that India must increase the number of taxpayers and recommended the U.S. expand economic ties with India because while the relationship involves “high risk,” it also promises a “high reward.”

Educated in India and Oxford, U.K., he was an assistant director in the IMF’s research department. “For an economy like India, two things are important,” Subramanian told reporters in New Delhi yesterday. “Macroeconomic stability and creation of rapid investment and growth.”

Ease of Business

The S&P BSE Sensex index of shares rose 0.1 percent as of 10:13 a.m. in Mumbai, the rupee advanced 0.4 percent to 61.6250 per and the yield on the benchmark 10-year sovereign bond climbed to 8.39 percent from 8.37 percent.

Subramanian’s appointment came as Modi yesterday shuffled bureaucrats between ministries -- including Finance Secretary Arvind Mayaram -- as part of his plan to make it easier to do business.

India fell to 134 of 189 economies in the World Bank’s 2014 index, from 131 last year. Modi swept to power in May with the strongest electoral mandate in 30 years.

He probably won’t take dramatic steps to change economic policies and will look to improve performance of the bureaucracy and pursue gradual fiscal consolidation, Standard & Poor’s analyst Joydeep Mukherji wrote in a report yesterday.

“India’s a funny thing, right?” Subramanian said last year. “It’s amazing how many Chinese I have met in the last one and a half years or how many foreign investors will say, ‘We love India. But in terms of doing business, no comparison, we’d rather be in China.’”

bloomberg.com

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