Monday, May 27, 2013

Will Barack Obama be the president with best stock market record in 21st century?

In the 84 years that the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has been calculated, it doubled during the terms of only four presidents before Barack Obama's election in 2008.


This month that number rose to five as the index climbed to more than twice what it was when he took office.

Through Friday, more than 52 months after he took office, the index was up 105 per cent during his term in office, for a compound annual gain of 18 per cent. There is, of course, more than a little good fortune in that statistic.

Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009, in the middle of a credit crisis that had caused prices to plunge and would cause them to keep falling for a few more weeks.

It helps to start from a very low level. It also helps to have a central bank that drove short-term interest rates to zero, a step that both increased corporate profits and made bonds less attractive investments.

In fact, the US stock market fell from record high levels this week, and world markets quavered, in part because of comments made by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, that the Fed might be able to begin to back off from its aggressive monetary stance later this year.

Even with this week's dip, however, the US market has done better since early 2009 than any of the next nine largest economies in the world.

The US market lagged many others early in the recovery. But as its economy kept growing, albeit slowly, and European economies faltered and worries grew that emerging economies might experience slower growth, the US market overtook the others.

Of the next nine - ranked on the size of the economies in 2009, only India's market came close to the performance of the US market since early 2009.

Like the Chinese and Brazilian markets, it excelled early on but is now well below the peak it hit in 2011.

If you put your dollars into the Italian or Spanish stock markets when Obama took office, your shares would now be worth less than you paid for them.

Overall, the world's stock markets outside the United States have risen less than two-thirds as much as the American one has.

indiatimes.com

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