Monday, January 17, 2011

China's fear of economic weakness carries new risks

China's main contribution to world peace has been its own development. Chinese leaders proudly maintain that economic growth has brought stability to almost a quarter of the world's population and generated new opportunities for collaboration with other nations.

This is true, but it might not be the entire truth. For all the opportunities, China's current course of harmonious development might not always be compatible with the prospect of a harmonious world.

China
has never had a very harmonious view of the global economic order. It used to feel rather vulnerable when facing strong industrial markets and assertive suppliers of raw materials.

Recent history has painfully showed how economic weakness produces political vulnerability. It doesn't come as a surprise that the Chinese government has been seeking to remedy its political vulnerability through "economic security."

China has attempted to retain the commanding heights of growth, to build a league of strong Chinese industries and to gradually unfold a web of international production networks that are dominated by innovative Chinese national champions.

Yet this attempt to address economic vulnerability will cause more political insecurity. While China's industrial overcapacity has traditionally been generated mostly by foreign investors, China's expanding aid for national champions is only making things worse.

Overproduction in basic industries is now also complemented by excess capacity in high-tech like clean energy and semiconductors.

This renders China dependent on the unreliable consumer markets abroad, but also leads to growing trade frictions with other countries.

In faltering Western markets, people are starting to fear that State support for Chinese national industries is distorting competition.

But even in developing countries, there is growing concern about the terms of trade with China. China won't offset these concerns by means of checkbook diplomacy.

It is one thing to win some political goodwill by bailing out struggling governments or handing out loans to purchase Chinese products and services.

Source: http://opinion.globaltimes.cn

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