10 best stocks for 2011

Investors' fears that a bear market will return (and linger) has made for some bargains - and this group should thrive even if inflation returns.

Opportunity in growth stocks

Despite a gain of more than 10% in the S&P 500 over the past three months, there's still a real buying opportunity in growth stocks: Our 10 best for 2011 are expected to bolster their profits an average of 61% next year -- vs. 14% for the S&P -- and yet they trade at an average 12 times next year's earnings, vs. 13 times for the S&P.

Our selections this year are slanted toward commodities. Exposure to oil, chemicals, and fertilizer should provide protection against a falling dollar or an outbreak of a 1970s-style rise in inflation, which we think is a bigger threat than a double-dip recession. (We've also made some contrarian selections, including one housing-related stock.)

Mosaic

Market cap: $30.2 billion
2009 Revenue: $10 billion
P/E ratio: 15.4
Dividend yield: 0.3%
Ticker: MOS

As corn goes, so go the makers of fertilizer. That's good news for Mosaic, whose stock has had an 89% correlation with corn prices (if 100% means mirroring them exactly) during the past five years, according to SIG Susquehanna agriculture analyst Don Carson. The price of corn has jumped 25% over the last 12 months, and inventories are at their lowest since 1995. The reason: Heavy rains and scorching heat caused the2010 harvest to decline 4% from 2009 -- even as demand rose, with ethanol now consuming 41% of the U.S. corn crop and growing wealth in developing countries leading to increased food consumption.

Mosaic is up only 11% for the year, which means it has some catching up to do. And with analysts expecting a 48% earnings rise in 2011, the stock (which trades at 15.4 times those estimated profits) seems primed to flourish.

Mosaic enjoys other catalysts for greater sales of its main fertilizer products, phosphate and potash. According to a recent Merrill Lynch report, China -- which accounts for 20% of phosphate exports -- may soon restrict its sale outside that country, creating potential opportunity for Mosaic to increase its market share elsewhere in the world. Meanwhile BHP Billiton's failed bid to buy Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan and the acquisition of Potash One by German fertilizer company K S Aktiengesellschaft underscore potash's statusas "a commodity you want to be invested in," says Jennifer Dowty, portfolio manager of the John Hancock Global Agribusiness Fund, which has a large position in Mosaic.

Because the cost of building a potash mine can run into the billions, supply tends to lag well behind demand. Potash prices have tripled since 2004, and the International Fertilizer Association is expecting demand to grow 4.5% a year in coming years. Such fundamentals validate Mosaic's decision four years ago to invest heavily in expanding existing mines in the U.S. and Canada. Mosaic's potash production capacity has grown 10% since 2006 and is expected to increase another 60% between now and 2020. And as it rises, the company's stock seems likely to follow.

Agrium

Market cap: $12.6 billion
2009 Revenue: $9.1 billion
P/E ratio: 11.8
Dividend yield: 0.1%
Ticker: AGU

The basic argument for Agrium is similar to Mosaic's: Increased production of biofuels combined with rising global food demand means more need for fertilizer. But with Agrium that's only half the story.

Natural gas represents 80% of the cost of manufacturing Agrium's primary product, nitrogen fertilizer -- and the price of natural gas has fallen 50% since 2008. With U.S. gas production rising because of massive, recently exploited "shale gas" fields in Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and Texas, the International Energy Agency expects a gas "glut" to further depress prices in 2011.

Agrium's costs are dropping -- but that isn't the case for many of its competitors. Natural gas is difficult to transport, so new supplies in North America don't have much impact on prices elsewhere. "That gives Agrium a real competitive advantage," says mutual fund manager David Jordan, whose Agrium shares are among the largest positions in his Tributary Growth Opportunities Fund. Agrium's competitors in Eastern Europe are paying prices twice as high. Indeed, according to a Citigroup report on shale gas and its impact on the chemical industry, Agrium is the best positioned of all major fertilizer companies to benefit from the falling price of natural gas.

Agrium is not only a manufacturer of fertilizer but a retailer of it as well, as the company operates a 1,200-location chain of farm-product stores in six countries. This, says Richard Kelertas, an ag sector analyst at Canada's Dundee Securities (Agrium is headquartered in Calgary), allows the company to capture more of the spread between falling production costs and rising retail prices. "It's also a stable business with better margins," Kelertas says, noting that customers are buying not just products but services. "If the farmer is spending a lot of money on specialty seeds and fertilizers, he's not going to want to have inefficient application systems."

Agrium's earnings are on pace to jump 60% in 2010, and analysts are expecting another 44% bump next year -- giving Agrium's stock a forward P/E of 11.8.

Dow

Market cap: $36.1 billion
2009 Revenue: $45 billion
P/E ratio: 12.8
Dividend yield: 1.9%
Ticker: DOW

Cheap natural-gas prices are also a boon for Dow Chemical, which uses a key gas byproduct to make ethylene, a building block for the chemicals used to make plastic, rubber, paint, pharmaceuticals, detergents, and countless other products. "They've gone from being in the 80th percentile in terms of cost of production to the 20th percentile," says fund manager Tom Marsico, who counts Dow as a top 10 holding in his Marsico Focus and Marsico Growth funds.

Dow's business mix is improving too. In 2009, Dow acquired Rohm & Haas, a maker of specialty chemicals used heavily by the tech industry. The deal, which was announced just before the financial crisis began to unfold, got off to a rough start: Kuwait pulled out of a joint venture that was supposed to provide part of the financing. Forced to finance the $19 billion purchase on its own, Dow's stock took a beating from which it still hasn't fully recovered.

Nevertheless, by helping Dow broaden its portfolio -- which now includes chemicals used to make LED lighting, semiconductors, solar panels, and screens for TVs and smartphones -- Rohm & Haas has not only boosted Dow's earnings but also helped make them less cyclical. (As a bonus, Marsico thinks Dow may be on the verge of collecting a billion-dollar settlement from Kuwait, ending a dispute over the Rohm & Haas financing.)

Dow is also making hay in its agrosciences division; boosted by new Smartstax hybrid corn seeds that Dow co-developed with Monsanto, the division's operating profits are on pace to rise 14% in 2010 and another 16% next year, according to Credit Suisse analyst John McNulty.

Companywide, Dow's gross margins have improved from 13% to 19% over the past two years. Long-term debt has been pared by $4 billion. And analysts expect 2011 earnings to be up 32% -- on the heels of a 212% earnings improvement this year. (Granted, 2009 was a disaster.) Best of all, Dow's stock isn't priced to reflect the growth company it has become. The share's forward P/E is just 12.8. Says Marsico: "This is now a stock with a real long-term tailwind."

Transocean

Market cap: $21 billion
2009 Revenue: $12 billion
P/E ratio: 9.2
Dividend yield: N.A.
Ticker: RIG

The disaster that killed 11 workers and spilled millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico didn't just crush BP's stock. It also sank shares of offshore driller Transocean, which owned and operated the Deepwater Horizon (which BP had leased). The rig was insured for $560 million -- already paid to Transocean -- but investors feared the company would be held liable for billions in cleanup costs and restitution.

Transocean maintained that its contract with BP shields it from liability. BP disagreed. So Transocean published the contract: BP "shall assume full responsibility for and shall protect, defend, indemnify, and hold [Transocean] harmless from and against any loss, damage, expense, claim, fine, penalty, demand or liability for pollution or contamination ... without regard for whether the pollution or contamination is caused in whole or in part by the negligence or fault of [Transocean]." BP even indemnified Transocean against "gross" negligence or "any other theory of legal liability" claimed by plaintiffs or regulators.

Most analysts now agree the early worries were overblown. "We think that the company is well indemnified against blowout-related liability," writes Stifel Nicolaus analyst Thaddeus Vayda. He has an $82 price target for Transocean shares, up 22% from the current $67.

We think Transocean's upside is even greater, despite increased scrutiny of offshore drilling and the Obama administration's decision to reverse its expansion of gulf exploration. Oil prices have risen 17% since May as global demand has rebounded to 2007 levels. Weakness in the West has masked voracious demand in China and India. As North America and Europe recover, the return of triple-digit oil seems likely. Meanwhile production isn't keeping up with demand. All of that means a greater need for deepwater drilling. And consider this: There's a correlation between the price of oil and the value of the long-term contracts oil companies sign to lease Transocean's drilling rigs. Transocean earned $16.57 per share back in 2007 (when oil prices averaged $64). Apply its current 9.2 P/E ratio to those earnings, and you've got a $150 stock.

Royal Dutch Shell

Market cap: $108 billion
2009 Revenue: $278 billion
P/E ratio: 8.3
Dividend yield: 5.5%
Ticker: RDSA

Offshore drillers like Transocean tend to be the energy sector's more volatile stocks. If wild rides aren't your thing, consider Royal Dutch Shell. "Buying this stock is kind of like buying a utility with a call option on oil prices," says Greg Padilla, co-manager of the Nuveen Tradewinds Global Resources fund, which owns a significant Shell stake. Padilla means that as a compliment, but we'd go further. Yes, the stock has attributes that conservative investors favor, such as low debt and $28 billion a year in free cash flow. Shell's 5.5% dividend yield is higher than Chevron's (3.6%) or Exxon Mobil's (2.5%). It trades at a bargain 8.3 P/E, a shade below the 9.1 average for its peer group (and well below the S&P 500's 13).

But Shell is also a growth story. Analysts expect it to increase profits at a higher rate than any of its Big Oil brethren over the next two years. The reason? Many of them are struggling to find enough new oil to offset depletion in old wells. By contrast, Shell is expanding reserves and pumping up production. "They're one of the few majors with significant production growth," says Ben Fischer, portfolio manager of the Allianz NFJ International Value Fund.

The key has been Shell's hefty investment in research and development, typically higher than that of any other oil company. Next year, for example, Shell will open a $19 billion plant in Qatar that uses state-of-the-art technology (backed by 3,500 Shell patents) to convert Qatar's abundant natural-gas supplies into 260,000 barrels a day of diesel and other liquid fuels.

Shell has another advantage: geography. Much of the world's oil and gas is located in countries that are politically unstable, riddled with violence, or run by corrupt politicians (and sometimes all of the above). Perhaps burned by its experiences in places like Nigeria, Shell is now placing some of its biggest bets on unconventional oil-and-gas production in ultrastable countries such as Australia, Canada, and the U.S.  "People tend to look at Royal Dutch Shell as a safe place to get a dividend yield, which it is," says Fischer. "But it has a really good set of strategic initiatives going for it too."

Lennar

Market cap: $2.8 billion
2009 Revenue: $3.1 billion
P/E ratio: 25
Dividend yield: 1.1%
Ticker: LEN

Lennar is one of the nation's largest homebuilders -- which hasn't been anything to boast about. It has careened from earning $1.4 billion in 2005 to a loss of $417 million in 2009, and its stock has swooned from $67 to $15 a share.

So why recommend Lennar? Consider the big picture. Between 1959 and 2007, housing starts in the U.S. averaged 1.5 million a year, a figure propelled by a potent force: Historically there have been 1 million to 1.5 million new households formed in the U.S. every year. But since the end of 2008, housing starts have averaged 575,000 a year. "It's unbelievable -- housing starts have been near 50-year lows for two years," says Karl Case, the Wellesley College economics professor who started sounding the alarm about the real estate bubble back in 2004.

Yes, foreclosures and inventories of unsold homes continue to be a drag on home prices -- and Lennar is a stock that will require patience -- but the market seems to be clearing. Inventories have declined for four consecutive months and are now down 25% since 2008. Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies expects 1.2 million household formations per year through 2015. Case thinks demand could soon outstrip supply, which would lead to higher prices. Analyst Stephen Kim of Alpine Funds is more optimistic: "There's no question you're going to see a snap-back in the housing market."

Moreover, Lennar has a history of making lemonade from real estate lemons. During the S&L crisis in the early 1990s, it made a small fortune buying distressed properties at 30¢ or 40¢ on the dollar and then reselling them for 50¢ or 60¢. The operation was so successful it was eventually spun off into a separate company -- LNR -- that was acquired for $3.8 billion. The brains behind LNR was Jeffrey Krasnoff, and he's now back at Lennar running a new distressed real estate unit called Rialto. Michael Winer, manager of the Third Avenue Real Estate Value Fund and a Lennar shareholder, thinks Rialto can cash in even without an immediate rebound in home prices. Says Winer: "This is a stock that could move very quickly. By the time everybody believes there's a recovery underway, it'll be too late. Lennar could already be up 40% or 50%."

East West Bancorp

Market cap: $2.6 billion
2009 Revenue: $880 million
P/E ratio: 12.9
Dividend yield: 0.2%
Ticker: EWBC

Like every other regional bank, East West Bancorp was hammered by the financial crisis. But unlike many competitors, East West owned up early to its problem loans. The Pasadena-based commercial bank raised $200 million and set aside $140 million in loan-loss provisions during the first half of 2008 -- before the bottom fell out of the credit markets.

That paid off, allowing East West to acquire the assets of two failed rivals from the FDIC at fire-sale prices. The FDIC even agreed to cover more than 80% of losses on the acquired loans and real estate. "I don't think the FDIC would have looked as favorably on the transactions if East West didn't already have its own portfolio in order," says George Henning, manager of the Pacific Advisors Small Cap Fund, which counts East West as a top-five holding.

The bank's results are heading in the right direction. East West recorded third-quarter profits of 27¢ a share vs. a 91¢ loss in the third quarter of '09. Analysts expect next year's earnings to climb 51%, above the 11% growth projected for East West's peer group. The bank is better capitalized than its competitors, according to a Sterne Agee report, and its percentage of nonperforming loans is lower -- 3.1% vs. 5.1%. Despite all this, East West's stock trades at 12.9 times projected 2011 earnings, a significant discount to the 19 P/E of its peers.

It's not just the numbers that look good. East West's demographics are attractive too. With the two FDIC transactions, East West is now believed to be the largest Chinese-American-focused bank in the country. (In addition to its 131 branches in the U.S., the bank also has three branches in China.) According to a recent Ariel/Hewitt study, Asian Americans boast a savings rate 19% higher than the national average. The median household income among Asian Americans is $65,469, vs. $49,777 for the entire U.S., and the number of Asian-owned businesses in the U.S. is growing at twice the national rate.

That helps explain why East West boasts a return on equity four times higher than the median regional bank, and why its shares seem likely to appreciate.

Royal Caribbean

Market cap: $8.7 billion
2009 Revenue: $5.9 billion
P/E ratio: 12.6
Dividend yield: N.A.
Ticker: RCL

After a stormy period, the sailing has lately been -- dare we say it? -- smooth for Royal Caribbean. The cruise company was pounded by the Great Recession, with earnings dipping from $2.68 to 75¢ per share between 2008 and 2009. Now leisure spending is recovering, and Royal Caribbean is benefiting from the fact that cruises have always cost less than comparable land vacations. The company's earnings are on pace to rise 168% in 2010. By comparison, operating earnings at Disney's theme parks and resorts fell 7% during Walt Disney Co.'s fiscal year that ended Oct. 2.

The recovery in vacation spending has been stronger in Europe than in the U.S., but that hasn't been a hindrance for Royal. "A hotel builder makes a big capital commitment and hopes that the geography works. If it doesn't, they're in big trouble," says Ken Kuhrt, an analyst and fund manager at Ariel Investments, which owns 2.5 million RCL shares. "Royal Caribbean simply comes up with new itineraries and moves its assets to wherever they're going to get the greatest return." By 2012, 50% of the cruise line's passengers will be international, according to William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia, up from 25% five years ago.

Based on current bookings and the early success of its new Oasis of the Seas cruise ship (and her just-launched sister, Allure of the Seas), Royal Caribbean has said it expects 2011 earnings to surpass its previous record of $3.26 a share, which would mean profit growth next year of at least 62%. The two new ships boast 5,400 rooms -- vs. 3,600 for rival Carnival's biggest vessel -- as well as zip lines, water parks, and 3-D movie theaters. "People are willing to pay a premium to be on these new ships," says Kuhrt. "They're assets nobody else has -- it would take three years if somebody wanted to build a comparable ship."

The stock, now $40 a share, is trading at a modest 13 times 2011 earnings, but Kuhrt thinks it deserves a P/E closer to 17, which was Royal Caribbean's average valuation from 1997 to 2007. That translates to a stock price of $54 -- just the sort of gain that could fund a pleasant holiday.

Entropic

Market cap: $750 million
2009 Revenue: $116 million
P/E ratio: 11.7
Dividend yield: N.A.
Ticker: ENTR

Every stock portfolio needs one swing-for-the-fences bet on the latest gotta-have-it gadget or technology. San Diego-based Entropic is our pick. The company makes semiconductor chipsets that operate a home-networking system known as MoCa. That's the technology behind the multiroom DVR players -- marketed ad nauseam by DirecTV and Verizon FiOS -- that allow you to record a TV show in one room and then watch it in another.

DirecTV and FiOS already install MoCa in their new HD set-top boxes, and the three leading cable companies -- Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and Cox Communications -- have announced plans to add Entropic chipsets to theirs in 2011. If multiroom DVR capability does become standard on new HD set-top boxes -- and that's where the market seems headed -- the payoff for Entropic would be enormous. It currently controls 85% of the MoCa market. It can even afford to cede some share to Broadcom, as analysts anticipate it will, since the overall market for MoCa chipsets is expected to grow at a 35% to 40% annual rate over the next three years.

Chris Retzler, manager of the Needham Small Cap Growth Fund, sees another opportunity. He envisions a day in which Entropic chipsets are built into TVs, home stereos, game consoles, and Blu-ray players too, allowing for easy sharing of audio and video content across home networks. (In other words, if the kids are playing Wii downstairs on the TV that is connected to your Blu-ray player, you could still pop in a movie and watch it on the upstairs TV.) That could make Entropic a takeover target. "The opportunity for Entropic is enormous," says Retzler, whose fund owns 100,000 shares of Entropic.

Analysts expect 43% earnings growth from Entropic next year. Normally you'd have to pay a hefty premium for a tech stock with this kind of growth potential, but Entropic is priced more like a value stock: At $9 a share, it trades at 11.7 times projected 2011 earnings. Investors seem unduly alarmed by the competitive threat posed by Broadcom and perhaps by the jump in its stock price -- more than 200% this year. But we think it still has plenty of room to run.

Apple

Market cap: $284 billion
2009 Revenue: $43 billion
P/E ratio: 15.7
Dividend yield: N.A.
Ticker: AAPL

At $315 a share and up 47% for the year, Apple looks expensive. We thought so when we wrote about it in September. But after poring over Apple's recent financials, we're now convinced it's cheaper than it appears and that sales of the already hot iPhone and the iPad are set to go stratospheric. A concern we raised was Apple's vulnerability to a key misstep -- such as the iPhone 4 antenna problem that grabbed headlines this past summer. Yet during the July-to-September quarter, iPhone sales thrashed expectations, skyrocketing 91% vs. the same period last year.

What's astounding is that Apple did it with one hand tied behind its back. The iPhone isn't yet sold via the dominant wireless carriers in the U.S., China, Japan, and South Korea. Once Apple sheds exclusivity deals such as AT&T's in the U.S., iPhone sales should get a huge boost. Industrywide, smartphone sales increased 96% last quarter, according to Gartner Research. Apple's market share doubled in Canada and France once the top carriers started selling the iPhone.

Then there's the iPad. Apple sold 3.3 million of the tablet computers in its first three months, surpassing the debuts of both its own iPhone and the netbook category. Don't bet on a sophomore slump: Sales of iPhones and netbooks rose 246% and 155%, respectively, in their second year, says Bernstein Research.

Analysts predict Apple will earn $19.85 a share in the 2011 calendar year (up from $16.73 in 2010), which translates to a price/earnings ratio of 15.7. Sure, this is higher than the S&P 500's 13 P/E, but Apple's earnings have increased an average of 45% over the past three years, while the S&P's earnings have declined 4% per year.

Moreover, Apple's P/E is arguably inflated. Its free cash flow -- money actually flowing into company coffers -- is 14% higher than its reported net income, notes Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi. Apple has over-reserved for U.S. taxes on foreign profits, but, according to Sacconaghi, the company is moving to reduce that, which will have the effect of boosting Apple's reported earnings and reducing its P/E. "The stock is definitely not overpriced," says Sacconaghi, "especially not for a company so well positioned in such fast-growing markets."

Source: CNN
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