Abe to push security reform, may compromise economic change

TOKYO — Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will this week push ahead with plans to loosen the rules governing the military, although analysts warn that this may squander the political capital needed to pursue tough economic reforms.

The military reform, a significant shift in Japan’s pacifist outlook, is only one piece of legislation scheduled for approval this summer.

 Parliament normally closes in June, but political analysts have said Mr Abe is set to prolong the current session to August as he pursues economic reform.

 This summer of legislation will be crucial for the Prime Minister’s Abenomics stimulus package, which is aimed at ending 20 years of on-and-off deflation and restoring the country to sustainable growth.

However, if the Premier sacrifices too much political capital on security changes, it may threaten his ability to pass structural economic reforms — the so-called “third arrow” of Abenomics.

 “This could well lead to a 10 percentage point fall in the approval rating for Abe’s Cabinet,” said Takao Toshikawa, political newsletter Tokyo Insideline’s editor.

 The ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and its Komeito coalition partner signed off on the package of security Bills on Monday. They are set for Cabinet approval today, and may reach Parliament by tomorrow.

 The security Bills will put into effect a new defence agreement between the United States and Japan, and last summer’s reinterpretation of Tokyo’s pacifist constitution by Mr Abe. They are based on the principle that Japan can and should fight to protect its allies, rather than merely fending off direct attacks on its territory.

 One Bill creates a framework for Japan’s military to provide logistical support for multinational peacekeeping forces, while another revises 10 different laws governing the military and its response to armed attacks. The security changes have been unpopular with the public.

A poll for Japan News Network showed 46 per cent of the public to be against them, with 36 per cent in favour. That may get worse as the measures go through Parliament.

“Opposition parties will probably leverage public sentiment to prolong the debate,” said Teneo Intelligence analyst Tobias Harris.

 Mr Abe’s approval ratings are hovering above 50 per cent, and he has generally moved cautiously on reforms to keep ratings there.He has tried to show the public he is prioritising the economy instead of his goals of security and constitutional reform.

 However, after a strong LDP performance at last month’s local elections, Mr Abe has some breathing space before his re-election as party leader in September. That makes it one of the best opportunities he will have to pass legislation to reform the economy.

 Attacked in Parliament for telling the US Congress he would pass the law this summer before submitting it to the legislature, Mr Abe said he had been signalling his intentions since last year. “In no way is this contempt for Parliament,” he said.

 Mr Toshikawa said Mr Abe would try to push less popular economic measures such as labour-market reform in addition to the security legislation. Mr Abe hopes the sense of economic momentum from a rising stock market will sustain his support.

He may then turn to more popular areas of policy, such as measures to support families, and seek to rebuild his popularity.

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