Thursday, January 30, 2014

Economy slowly exits the Great Recession

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is showing more strength than at any time since the Great Recession began six years ago. Employers are hiring.

Home prices, sales and construction have surged. Corporate profits and stocks have hit records. And consumers have picked up their spending.

The economy has yet to fully recover from the most devastating crisis since the Great Depression. But it’s getting closer — a point President Barack Obama highlighted in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.

By the middle of this year, after years of steady but sluggish improvement, the nation is expected to have regained all the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession, which officially ended 4½ years ago.

Many economic forecasters say the economy should grow 3 percent or more this year. That would be its best performance since 2005.

And yet the lopsided nature of the half-decade global recovery leaves Obama with little to celebrate. Much of the U.S. labor force has gone without pay increases. Millions have struggled for more than six months to find work.

Others have had to accept lower-paying jobs and diminished career prospects. If the economy does come close to 3 percent growth for 2014, it would mark a solid improvement from the 2.4 percent average annual growth so far.

On Thursday, the government will estimate economic growth for all of 2013. Incomes for the top 1 percent of Americans have skyrocketed 31 percent from 2009 to 2012, after adjusting for inflation, according to Emmanuel Saez, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

But pay has barely budged for everyone else. Many Americans feel worse off despite the brightening economic landscape.

Forty percent identify themselves as lower or lower-middle class, according to a survey released Monday by the Pew Research Center. Just 25 percent of the country felt that way in 2008. Job growth has been steady in an uneven recovery.

Employers have added at least 2.1 million jobs in each of the past three years, creating momentum that could help the economy gain speed in 2014. Each new job puts more money in the hands of people to spend. That’s why consistent job growth can give more traction to the recovery.

The unemployment rate has plunged from 7.9 percent to 6.7 percent over the past year. That’s down from a 10 percent peak in October 2009.

Still, the benefits of more hiring have been muted so far, in part because much of it has been concentrated in the low-wage industries of hotels, restaurants, retailers and temp workers. Also, millions of jobless Americans have stopped looking for work.

desmoinesregister.com

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