The market participated whole-heartedly in last week's global rally, with the Sensex surging 6.07% or 1,019.16 points, and the Nifty shooting up 6.15%. The CNX Midcap Index gained a relatively modest 3.31%.
Hindalco was the biggest winner among the index stocks with a 16.9% gain. The other index stocks to go up include Tata Motors, Sterlite Industries, Jaiprakash Associates and Tata Steel, with gains between 15.9% and 11.2%.
State Bank of India was the biggest loser among index stocks with a 2.1% loss. HDFC Bank was the only other index stock to fall with a loss of 0.8%.
Flexituff International was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 39.7% gain. The other nonindex stocks to go up include Prakash Constrowell, Rushil Decor, Reliance Infrastructure, JSW Steel, Tata Motors DVR, Yes Bank and Reliance Capital, with gains between 24.6% and 11.4%.
M and B Switchgears was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 32.7% loss. The other nonindex stocks to go down include VIP Industries, Union Bank, Sun TV Network, Venky's (India), Jaypee Infratech, TTK Prestige and PNB, with losses between 8.7% and 2.1%.
INTERMEDIATE TREND
The Sensex, Nifty and CNX Midcap are now in well-established intermediate uptrends following last week's surge. The intermediate uptrend would end if the Sensex breaches 16,725-mark, the Nifty 5,025, and the CNX Midcap Index 6,925 (figures rounded down to the nearest 25). These figures would rise to the bottom of the next minor decline, once one occurs.
The intermediate uptrend has been on from the October 4 lows of 15,745 for the Sensex, 4,728 for the Nifty, and 6,817 for the CNX Midcap Index.
Most global indices are also in intermediate uptrends, and the global intermediate trend is up. The Dow and a few European indices are already at threemonth highs.
LONG-TERM TREND
Last week's breakouts mean that there is now a reasonable chance that the bear market may have also ended for a few indices including the Dow, Sensex and Nifty. The breakouts have taken these markets above their previous intermediate tops, generating the so called 'Dow Signal'.
Further confirmation of a bull market would arrive if these indices settle above their 200-day moving averages. The Sensex's average is just over 18,000 and the Nifty's above 5,400. The Dow crossed its average last week.
TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES
Additional investment for the long-term is best done after an intermediate downtrend develops and runs for a week or more as the current uptrend is almost a month old. Existing portfolios should be retained as the risk on more volatile stocks too has come down as a bull market may have begun.
Investing in gold and other commodities remains risky as there is a strong possibility that the longer-term trend in most commodities is down, despite some strong rallies. Most commodities remain well below the peaks they reached earlier in the year.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Virtually all global markets are in intermediate uptrends now, following the strong rally that lasted most of last week. Several indices have climbed to three-month highs, and even laggards are at three-four week highs. The Dow broke out upwards from its three-month range when it decisively cleared 11,800. It also crossed its 200-day moving average, and may well have entered a bull market again as it is above its last intermediate top.
The Economic Times
Hindalco was the biggest winner among the index stocks with a 16.9% gain. The other index stocks to go up include Tata Motors, Sterlite Industries, Jaiprakash Associates and Tata Steel, with gains between 15.9% and 11.2%.
State Bank of India was the biggest loser among index stocks with a 2.1% loss. HDFC Bank was the only other index stock to fall with a loss of 0.8%.
Flexituff International was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 39.7% gain. The other nonindex stocks to go up include Prakash Constrowell, Rushil Decor, Reliance Infrastructure, JSW Steel, Tata Motors DVR, Yes Bank and Reliance Capital, with gains between 24.6% and 11.4%.
M and B Switchgears was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 32.7% loss. The other nonindex stocks to go down include VIP Industries, Union Bank, Sun TV Network, Venky's (India), Jaypee Infratech, TTK Prestige and PNB, with losses between 8.7% and 2.1%.
INTERMEDIATE TREND
The Sensex, Nifty and CNX Midcap are now in well-established intermediate uptrends following last week's surge. The intermediate uptrend would end if the Sensex breaches 16,725-mark, the Nifty 5,025, and the CNX Midcap Index 6,925 (figures rounded down to the nearest 25). These figures would rise to the bottom of the next minor decline, once one occurs.
The intermediate uptrend has been on from the October 4 lows of 15,745 for the Sensex, 4,728 for the Nifty, and 6,817 for the CNX Midcap Index.
Most global indices are also in intermediate uptrends, and the global intermediate trend is up. The Dow and a few European indices are already at threemonth highs.
LONG-TERM TREND
Last week's breakouts mean that there is now a reasonable chance that the bear market may have also ended for a few indices including the Dow, Sensex and Nifty. The breakouts have taken these markets above their previous intermediate tops, generating the so called 'Dow Signal'.
Further confirmation of a bull market would arrive if these indices settle above their 200-day moving averages. The Sensex's average is just over 18,000 and the Nifty's above 5,400. The Dow crossed its average last week.
TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES
Additional investment for the long-term is best done after an intermediate downtrend develops and runs for a week or more as the current uptrend is almost a month old. Existing portfolios should be retained as the risk on more volatile stocks too has come down as a bull market may have begun.
Investing in gold and other commodities remains risky as there is a strong possibility that the longer-term trend in most commodities is down, despite some strong rallies. Most commodities remain well below the peaks they reached earlier in the year.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Virtually all global markets are in intermediate uptrends now, following the strong rally that lasted most of last week. Several indices have climbed to three-month highs, and even laggards are at three-four week highs. The Dow broke out upwards from its three-month range when it decisively cleared 11,800. It also crossed its 200-day moving average, and may well have entered a bull market again as it is above its last intermediate top.
The Economic Times
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