Friday, March 04, 2011

Oil higher ahead of US employment data

The situation in Libya has not deteriorated any further but then again it has not improved any. The opposition group still retains control of all of the areas including the oil port of Brega that forces loyal to Gaddafi have tried twice unsuccessfully to recapture even with airstrikes. The market eased a bit yesterday on a combination of a mediation proposal by Venezuela's Chavez and the Arab League...an unlikely duo since they are mostly autocratically ruled governments and the uprising in Libya is about freedom. Today Gaddafi forces are putting checkpoints around Tripoli as the opposition group has called for a protest in Tripoli after the noon prayers.

The situation in Libya is showing all of the signs of a problem that is going to last for an extended period of time. Civil unrest or war or whatever you want to call it is what is evolving with neither side anywhere near ready to back off. The opposition group quickly rejected the Venezuelan mediation plan and Gaddafi continues to vow he will fight to very end. The west continues to call for Gaddafi to depart including President Obama who yesterday called for him to leave the country. Discussions continue in the West as to the merits and feasibility of establishing a no fly zone over Libya but so far this is just discussions. The US now has a military presence around Libya. Also both Russian and China voiced their objection in the UN Security Council over any movement to authorize force or a no fly zone in Libya by the West. So this week is going to end much like last week with a major oil producer still in turmoil, oil flow reduced strongly and no end in sight at the moment.

In spite of all of the ongoing turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East as well as the ECB signaling they may raise interest rates as early as April investor/traders embraced global equity markets yesterday as shown in the EMI Global Equity Index table. Over the last twenty four hours all ten bourses in the Index gained ground with only Brazil still showing a year to date loss. The Index is up by 1.5% for both the week and the year to date. The better than expected macroeconomic data that has come out over the last forty eight hours has been very supportive for equities especially the positive pre jobs data in the US. The ADP numbers on Wednesday and yesterday's weekly initial jobless claims both came in much better than expected.

By Dominick A. Chirichella

Source: www.ibtimes.com

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